March 17th 2009

Depressing, But Not A Depression

Our Tuesday morning men’s group just wrapped up and while we all have a lot to be thankful for, it was all in all a pretty gloomy bunch of guys.  Every one was looking at business slowing down and had some level of worry about the short-term future.  But the group definitely wasn’t as gloomy as the president though, who as you recall regularly beats the fear drum with stuff like this:

“We are in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and a lot of you I think are worried about your jobs, your pensions, your retirement accounts.” (Reuters)

But is he right?  Is it the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression?  In terms of job losses it is … but let’s not get too hysterical, shall we?

Pink equals the great depression, light blue is now … why Time stopped in December ’07 is a bit beyond me, but here’s how the writer, Justin Fox, summed it up:

Still, it’s clear that the employment downturn we’ve been dealing with, while probably the worst since the Great Depression, is much, much closer in severity to the recessions of the mid 1970s and early 1980s than to the utter disaster of the 1930s. That’s no guarantee that it won’t get worse, of course. But it is useful to know.

So, since we’re in a downturn like the 1970s or 1980s, why is Obama dealing with it like it’s the 1930s?  Because we need it – or because he needs it as a cover for his Big Deal plans for a more left-oriented America?

hat-tip: The Glittering Eye

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December 17th 2008

Tasered, Not Stimulated

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overnment has been throwing all we’ve got at the economy – a stimulus package, mortgage relief programs, $700 billion bailouts, plans afoot for an auto industry bailout and another big stimulus, this one Obama’s own credit card-purchased gift to the American people.

Were government rational, driven by economic instead of political realities, Congress and the prez-elect would realize that everything they’ve tried so far has not accomplished the desired goals and would fix what’s broken before buying more broken stuff. But government’s not rational.

“An economic recovery plan will be the first thing out of the box,” Obama said shortly after his election. Since then he’s talked about infrastructure programs (as if the government isn’t already spending tens or hundreds of billions on infrastructure with no discernible effect on the economy), and $150 billion on renewable energy, as oil prices continue to drop. (Idiot alert: Yes, I know oil prices will go up again. Our focus during a crisis needs to be on the short term, however; the long term is a costly luxury we can fund once the economy is back to its fundamentals.)

I don’t know about you, but I feel like someone on Obama’s email list – hit again and again with pleas for more money, more money, more money, before I’ve had a chance to assess what he’s done with the money he’s got.  Or, like the headline says, I feel more like I’ve been tasered than stimulated.

Before Congress and the prez (the waning Bush or the waxing Obama) fritter away any more, they need to assess how government’s done. Two stories this morning underline this.  First, WaPo on earlier mortgage bailout programs:

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Steve Preston said the centerpiece of the federal government’s effort to help struggling homeowners has been a failure and he’s blaming Congress.

The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike, Preston said in an interview.

“What most people don’t understand is that this program was designed to the detail by Congress,” Preston said. “Congress dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s for us, and unfortunately it has made this program tough to use.”

That Barney Frank – chief i-dotter and t-crosser – is quoted in the piece placing the blame firmly on the administration shows how utterly inept and incapable of mature management government is.  Steve Carell runs a better operation in The Office.

Whoever’s at fault, the numbers tell the tale:  400,000 customers anticipated; 312 customers in the door. In the real world, the program would be out of business, most of those working on it would be laid off, and no replacement programs would be underway until there was an understanding of what went wrong.

Part of that “what went wrong” scenario presupposes that government will be able to manage its operations, oversee its domain and fulfill its responsibilities.  That’s pretty much a baseline expectation of an organization you’re going to give a few hundred billion bucks to, as we have, and as it appears we will again, and that brings me to today’s WSJ story on government’s shoddy performance in this regard:

The Securities and Exchange Commission will examine the relationship between a former official at the agency and a niece of financier Bernard L. Madoff, after the SEC’s chief admitted “apparent multiple failures” to oversee the firm at the center of an alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme.

In an extraordinary admission that the SEC was aware of numerous red flags raised about Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, but failed to take them seriously enough, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox ordered a review of the agency’s oversight of the New York securities-trading and investment-management firm. The review will include whether relationships between SEC officials and Mr. Madoff or his family members had any impact on the agency’s oversight.

“I am gravely concerned” by the agency’s regulation of the firm, Mr. Cox said.

Mr. Madoff’s niece, Shana Madoff, married a former SEC attorney named Eric Swanson last year. Mr. Swanson worked at the SEC for 10 years, including as a senior inspections and examination official, before leaving in 2006. Ms. Madoff is a compliance lawyer at the securities firm. …

Mr. Cox said an initial review of SEC oversight of Mr. Madoff’s firm found that “credible and specific allegations” made as far back as 1999 “were repeatedly brought to the attention of SEC staff, but were never recommended to the Commission for action.”

Mr. Cox wasn’t specific about the past claims that were inadequately investigated. But around 2000, Harry Markopolos, at the time an executive at a rival firm to Mr. Madoff’s, contacted the SEC with suspicions about Mr. Madoff’s business. “Madoff Securities is the world’s largest Ponzi scheme,” Mr. Markopolos wrote in a letter to the agency. Mr. Markopolos pursued his accusations for years, dealing with the SEC’s regional offices in New York and Boston, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Holy. Moley. That’s eight years of Madoff scamming that might have been stopped if the SEC functioned as it’s supposed to function.  And we’ve just handed over a few hundred billion to tihs same government to handle as it sees fit, with minimal oversight.

And worse, seeing no benefit from the first round of tasering, we’re prepping to re-charge the batteries and toss in another few hundred billion of bailout money, $20 billion of auto bailout, and another few hundred billion of Obama stimulus.

Don’t tase me, Bro!  I’ve had quite enough stimulation already … quite enough:

The United States of America is bankrupt. Don’t believe it? Consider this: Federal obligations now exceed the collective net worth of all Americans, according to the New York-based Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Washington politicians and bureaucrats have essentially mortgaged everything We the People own so they can keep spending our tax dollars like there’s no tomorrow.

The foundation’s grim calculations are based on Sept. 30 consolidated federal statements, which showed that Americans’ total household net worth, diminished by falling stock prices and home equity, is $56.5 trillion. But rising costs for unfunded social programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security increased to $56.4 trillion – and that was before the more recent stock market crash, $700 billion bank bailout, and monster federal deficits chalked up in October and November.

“Given more recent developments, it’s clear that America now owes more than its citizens are worth,” said Foundation president David M. Walker, the former Comptroller-General of the United States who has been trying to warn Americans of the coming financial tsunami for years, to no avail. So, after Uncle Sam bails out bankers, Wall Street gamblers, carmakers and over-their-head homeowners, who’ll bail out Uncle Sam? (DC Examiner)

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October 2nd 2008

AIG Enjoyed A Big Party After Bailout

Just after AIG got an $85 billion loan from Uncle Sam to stave off its collapse – at tax payer expense – the folks at AIG American General, an AIG subsidiary, were hard at work … uh, party … here in OC. Reports the OC Register’s Watchdog blog:

Less than two weeks after Uncle Sam gave American International Group (AIG) an $85 billion loan – staving off financial collapse – execs from one of its insurance subsidiaries, AIG American General, gathered for a conference at the uber-swank St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort, billed as “California’s only Mobil Travel Guide Five-Star Resort,” where ocean-view rooms start at $565 a night and “world class luxury” is the rule.

On Friday, before the presidential debate got under way, caterers for the St. Regis were setting up dozens of tables on the grounds of Mission San Juan Capistrano for AIG American General’s sumptuous off-site dinner. Tables were draped with soft Tuscan-gold tablecloths that cascaded to the grass; elegant fresh flower centerpiece graced each table; and what appeared to be fine crystal stemware, at least from a distance, glistened in the fading light.

Workers set up a lengthy bar stocked with bottles of liquor. A half-dozen tall space heaters stood sentinel in case the evening turned cool. There was a large center stage with lighting and a sound system, and once the sun went down, the whole scene took on a magical patina as tiny white lights twinkled in the trees.

And we wonder why Americans aren’t too hot to bail out the caviar-chomping, scotch-swilling set? Not that some part-time pipe-fitter who lied about his income to get a taxpayer-subsidized low interest loan deserves a whit more sympathy than the AIG folks enjoying the best of the California Riviera lifestyle.

None deserves a penny. But this isn’t about who deserves what, it’s about keeping the economy alive. Keep telling yourselves that. Don’t even think about retribution or just desserts deserts. (Thanks Francis.)

Gee, I wonder what kind of desserts they served the AIG guys at the Mission … were they just, or just extravagant?

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September 30th 2008

Points For Gall

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arney Frank may be feeling a bit blue because he knows people in his district seat, Newton MA, found this in the Boston Globe a couple days back:

Now that the bubble has burst and the “systemic risk” is apparent to all, Frank blithely declares: “The private sector got us into this mess.” Well, give the congressman points for gall. Wall Street and private lenders have plenty to answer for, but it was Washington and the political class that derailed this train. If Frank is looking for a culprit to blame, he can find one suspect in the nearest mirror.

Jeff Jacoby’s Globe column lays out to Boston readers what we in the blogosphere already know: It was Dems and radical housing activists that got us into this mess with the Community Reinvestment Act on 1977, and it was Dems (most noisily Barney Frank) who kept insisting that Freddie and Fannie were just fine, thank you, keep that money rolling in. If it’s retribution we’re looking for, push Frank to the head of the line, Newtonians, and vote him out.

Of course, the lib Massachusetts voters are none too keen on messengers who ruffle their deeply Dem feathers, and the comments to Jacoby’s piece are largely negative and, typically, personal instead of intellectual:

jeff Joke-oby, you are a racist buffoon. You and your sick rich cohorts run our economy into the ground and make an absolute mega fortune, it all goes bust (as it had to) and then you turn around and blame….Minorities????!!!?? You must be kidding me! The depths of your unreason know no bounds. You should be ashamed of yourself, You Rush Limbaugh clone…perhaps the Mexican laborers who built your McMansion brought a mutated strain of bubonic plague over the border and infected the entire financial system with evil immigrant nefarious virus stuff. Whatever Jeff, face it. YOU LOST. REAGAN LOST. THE FREE MARKET LOST. Your days of sucking the peoples blood to make your points and those of your corporate masters are OVER. Now go get a real job. (IF you can find one).

The free market lost? Well, we all know what the only alternative is to a free market: the socialist state. Which makes this comment particularly apropos:

Good work, Mr. Jacoby, but don’t stop with Frank. Barack Obama sued lenders, to get them to issue more bad loans.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html

The link is to James Simpson’s article, “Barack Obama and the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis,” which I summarized this week in Sunday Scan – and is the one article of all I’ve read thus far that illuminates the magnitude of the evil strategy behind what’s going on now in the financial markets – nothing less than a socialist coup.

If you’ve got 11 minutes, check out this video, linked by the same commenter:

hat-tip: Jim

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September 29th 2008

Do The Dems Just Want The Economy To Fail?

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n the rush of everything that’s been going on since McCain suspended his campaign and Obama kept talking and talking and talking and talking, I managed to miss this, but Brian Goetti at The Conservative Edge didn’t:

Two weeks ago, when the financial crisis hit home, the Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid said that “no one knew what to do”. Since that time, proposals have been made to solve the problem.

None of the proposals have come from Democrats. The Bush Administration proposed a bailout that Harry Reid, Nanci Pelosi and Barak Obama signed onto.

House Republicans put forth their own plan as well. So where is the Democratic leadership on this crisis? No where to be found as far as I can tell.

With the Dems now convinced they’ve got their election-winner, they won’t lift a finger to help. They might want to adapt McCain’s slogan and make it their own: Self-Interest First.

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September 29th 2008

Harbingers Of Who I Don’t Want To Bail Out

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eing from Orange County – beautiful and pleasant place that it is – I unfortunately have to live with crooks since we long have been the white collar crime capital of the country.  Hey, if you were a criminal who had tons of stolen money and could live anywhere, wouldn’t this be your kind of place?

So for the last several years, up until a few months ago, this meant sharing the county with a lot of  young “Mortgage Millionaires.” It got positively bland seeing guys in their 30s driving by in Ferraris and Lambos.

My friend Neil, who has a knack for keeping just about every document known to man handily filed so he can pull it up in the blink of an eye sent me this observation made in 2003 from a long-defunct blog, “Content Goes Here.”  Cute name.

I was at my local coffeehouse today and a woman came who turned a lot of heads. She was young, very tan, with one of those spectacularly unrealistic Barbie bodies. Her face was a bit worn from sun and partying. She was on the arm of a spiky-haired and also very tan guy in his 30s who exuded money and oily charm….

There are a lot of these people in my part of Orange County, California. The subprime mortgage industry, as it feeds off the desperation of strapped hicks all over the country, has created a lot of high-wage jobs for business school graduates with connections. For some reason a particular kind of person flourishes in this environment. The men are simultaneously degenerate and athletic, and spend money with abandon. The women are simultaneously degenerate and athletic, and are sexually available without much trouble…

As long as interest rates are low and the nation’s struggling classes are refinancing their mortgages for extra cash, this predatory class of surfer bankers can pull in very good money, as much as $30,000 to $60,000 a month in some cases…

And inevitably, interest rates will rise again, the money will move, and the easy money will leave the subprime mortgage business. A lot of those $30,000 a month jobs for well-connected partiers will vanish, as will the leased supercars and the beach houses….

A quote attached to the blog notes:

This posting is dated July 24, 2003, which means it may well qualify as one of the very first warnings of a subprime lending industry collapse.

Collapse it did, and the thought of bailing out this guy and his girlfriend is what was driving the votes of many in Congress, when they refused to vote for the recovery package.

Neil adds a thought on what just might make this economic recovery package fly:

So, to the barricades!  I mentioned to our human factors guru on Friday that what the bailout plan missed was retribution.  I suggested that what we needed was heads on pikes.

This morning I mentioned to him that we are going to run out of pikes before we run out of heads.

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September 29th 2008

Bailing Out, Buying In: It’s Time To Take A Breath

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ur time has run out.  We’re going make a decision. There are no other choices, no other alternatives,” said Rep. Spencer Bachus, ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee.

Then the vote came, and the House of Representatives voted down the rescue plan by a vote of 228-205 … whereupon the Dow recovered 100 points before trailing off again to a daily loss of just below 600 points.

Our time has run out?  What does that mean?  Certainly the economy’s time has not run out; there is a vested interest on the part of the millions who make up and move the economy to keep it running; they’re not going to quit this afternoon because Congress fell 14 votes short.  It’s politicians’ time that may be running out, especially if they want to put this as far behind them as they can before Nov. 3.  (It was, after all, the House that voted it down – the House, where Representatives answer to the public every two years.)

Irwin Kellner at MarketWatch wrote this morning of the lack of correlation between what’s going on now and what happened in 1929, throwing a lot of calm reality in the face of the hysterics who fear imminent and total collapse of the economy.

Here are just a few of his examples:

  • In the crash of 1929 the Dow Jones industrials plunged 40% in two months; this time around it has taken a year to fall 22%.
  • The jobless rate jumped to 25% by 1933; it is little more than 6% today.
  • Some 40% of all mortgages were delinquent by 1934 compared with 4% today.
  • In the 1930s, more than 9,000 banks failed compared with fewer than 20 over the past couple of years.

On top of that, the policies imposed in 1929 were disastrous, and are not being replicated now.  Of course things could get worse, but we’re not going to go from a thick steak at Morton’s to the soup kitchen over night if Congress spends another day or two to improve the legislation a tad more.  A month or two could be a problem, but a day or two … c’mon.

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September 29th 2008

Obama’s Deep Ties To Mortgage Meltdown

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any of us have come to believe that the current financial mess can, in large part, be traced back to 1977, when Jimmy Carter’s pen signed the Community Reinvestment Act into law, giving the proud profession of community organizer a new reason for being. (Of course, Wall Street is much at fault to, because of how it handled the highly speculative toxic mortgages that grew out of CRA.)

Following passage of CRA, people like Madeline Talbott – described today by Stanley Kurtz in the NY Post as “a key pioneer in ACORN’s subprime shake-down racket” – began organizing the community to act. As head of ACORN Chicago, she began sit-ins (scream-ins, really) in bank lobbies, demanding home loans for people whose finances were so awful no sane person would consider them. She kept up the pressure using a team of organizers who were trained by … Barack Obama. Writes Kurtz:

IT would be tough to find an “on the ground” community organizer more closely tied to the subprime-mortgage fiasco than Madeline Talbott. And no one has been more supportive of Madeline Talbott than Barack Obama.

When Obama was just a budding community organizer in Chicago, Talbott was so impressed that she asked him to train her personal staff.

He returned to Chicago in the early ’90s, just as Talbott was starting her pressure campaign on local banks. Chicago ACORN sought out Obama’s legal services for a “motor voter” case and partnered with him on his 1992 “Project VOTE” registration drive.

In those years, he also conducted leadership-training seminars for ACORN’s up-and-coming organizers. That is, Obama was training the army of ACORN organizers who participated in Madeline Talbott’s drive against Chicago’s banks.

More than that, Obama was funding them. As he rose to a leadership role at Chicago’s Woods Fund, he became the most powerful voice on the foundation’s board for supporting ACORN and other community organizers. In 1995, the Woods Fund substantially expanded its funding of community organizers – and Obama chaired the committee that urged and managed the shift.

That committee’s report on strategies for funding groups like ACORN features all the key names in Obama’s organizer network. The report quotes Talbott more than any other figure; Sandra Maxwell, Talbott’s ACORN ally in the bank battle, was also among the organizers consulted.

MORE, the Obama-supervised Woods Fund report ac knowledges the problem of getting donors and foundations to contribute to radical groups like ACORN – whose confrontational tactics often scare off even liberal donors and foundations.

Indeed, the report brags about pulling the wool over the public’s eye. The Woods Fund’s claim to be “nonideological,” it says, has “enabled the Trustees to make grants to organizations that use confrontational tactics against the business and government ‘establishments’ without undue risk of being criticized for partisanship.”

Hmm. Radicalism disguised by a claim to be postideological. Sound familiar?

Troublingly familiar.

There is a great danger to the nation that this deep and insidious scandal will never come to light because the media and Congressional Democrats will conspire to cover it up. The support (including financial) groups like ACORN received from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would not be addressed, nor would links between those pushing this scheme and proponents of the Cloward-Priven strategy of chaos manufactured to bring down the Country, nor would we see Obama’s radical background exposed … at least prior to Nov. 3.

There is so much low-hanging fruit for the McCain campaign to pick in this scandal, it’s a wonder that the GOP continues to be on the losing end of the financial crisis.  When will they get it and begin using the roots of this crisis to win the election?

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September 19th 2008

$1,000,000,000,000

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ne trillion dollars.  That’s a good guess for how much the federal government has committed to bailing out financial institutions that, on advise of their own private employees, used private money to make appallingly risky investments.

I did not elect anyone to do this.  Did you?  Do you know anyone who did?

Did you notice how quickly Sen. On-the-Take Dodd and his cohorts (Dem and GOP) jumped on the opportunity to put off this generation’s ineptitudes and sins to future generations, when they’re out of office?  Did you elect anyone to burden your grandchildren with this debt?  Do your grandchildren and great-grandchildren even have a voice to protest?  Mine don’t; they’re not born yet.

Can anyone show me where in the Constitution it allows for the government to do this sort of thing?  Please. Let me know.

I understand this is a once-in-a-century thing and radical solutions just might save us from a disaster powerful enough to hurt us all and long enough to burn into history.  I understand that the intervention in this case may be the smartest route not be a complete denial of responsibility or a disastrous precedence.

But I also understand that intervention means the people who behaved reprehensibly and destroyed entire companies because of their horribly bad judgment and twisted values, putting thousands of innocents out of work, will be cushioned from the fate they deserve.  And without a public flogging, we can expect to see them live to screw up another day.

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With Obama winning the presidency by seven percent, we can't blame the media. Their laudatory coverage and refusal to extensively probe into Obama's background and [lack of] experience was at best responsible for five percent of his vote, the pundits tell us. Here is a compilation of over 100 significant instances of pro-Obama/anti-McCain bias during the 2008 campaign.

For all 'Media Bias 2008' – Click Here