November 11th 2008
Can Obama Keep Faith With The Facebook Set?
M
y Facebook friend Dan Chmielewki, a Dem with whom I happily can have intelligent conversations, informs me that 17 percent of this year’s electorate were 18-24 year-olds, and they went 68/30 for Obama.
Imagine that - a tiny six-year slice of the electorate, perhaps 10 percent of it or so in terms of demographics, making up 17 percent of the vote. And the other CSM is telling us Obama hasn’t left them at the polls; he’s still wooing them:
The president-elect gives every indication he will continue to solicit input from young voters – though not just from youth. His transition website, www.change.gov, asks visitors to “share ideas.” As president, he plans Internet “fireside chats” with the public and online town halls with the cabinet. From the millions of e-mail addresses that his campaign collected, one can imagine a mass mobilization when important votes come up in Congress.
The same article tells us this gen, unlike some of its predecessors, is actually turned on by government:
Encouragingly, this generation actually wants to interact with government, politics, and public service. That’s a reversal of the “bowling alone” years of 1990s civic apathy among youth. A fall pre-election survey by Harvard’s Institute of Politics shows that almost 60 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 are personally interested in doing some kind of public service.
Nearly half said that could include working for federal, state, or local government. A third of the total said they would consider working for a campaign, and a fifth said they would consider public office.
If nothing else, Obama is exceptionally gifted at understanding demographics, and using that understanding to connect where the connecting is most fruitful. It paid off in this election - he pulled in the poor, the young and the tired-of-it-alls and fired their engines with racing fuel, not regular.
But now comes the real test, particularly with the youth vote. Obama’s “Facebooking” them, inviting dialog, seeking input, heck, probably even posting photos. But this is a generation with a finely tuned phony-meter, and if Obama passes from grassroots to Astroturf roots, they’ll sense it and rebel against it.
Meanwhile, the always quotable (that is not a compliment) Gary Kamiya writes smugly today:
The painful truth for conservatives is that the dogs aren’t eating their dog food — and every national trend indicates that they will never eat it again. Which means the GOP faces a wrenching choice: remain true to its increasingly irrelevant and rejected ideology and fade into political insignificance, or remake itself as essentially a more moderate version of the Democratic Party.
Never say never, Kamiya. Remember, the last time youth turned out in similar numbers, 1984, they went overwhelmingly for Reagan, sending Mondale down to crashing defeat.
The Dems have the youth today, but they also have one of the most exceptional candidates in American history. Not exceptionally qualified, not exceptionally right, but exceptionally appealing. He made that appeal by promising almost everything to almost everyone, a tactic that cannot be delivered upon in the end. Someone’s bound to be disappointed - a whole lot of someones. As Cliff May of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies so nicely put it:
Give Obama his due: It is an exceptional politician who can win the support of Louis Farrakhan, leader of the Nation of Islam, and Kenneth Duberstein, former chief of staff to President Reagan; of William Ayers, an unrepentant terrorist, and Christopher Buckley, son of William F. Buckley, founder of modern intellectual conservatism; of Rashid Khalidi, an Israel-hater, and Edgar Bronfman, former head of the World Jewish Congress. Here’s a not-very-bold prediction: A year from now, someone is going to be sorely disappointed.
Combine that cold wake-up call with the risks inherent with trying to be cool and connected to several tens of millions of online friends, and you have a recipe for disappointment. Add to that the fact that in 2016, whether or not Obama wins reelection in 2012, the Dems are almost certain to nominate some old warhorse with “he’s next in line” charisma.
Meanwhile, we’ll get to study Obama from the sidelines, learning what works and doesn’t work without risking immediate consequences, and begin preparing for the return everyone but Kamiya knows is going to happen.
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