November 7th 2008
The Great Election Fizzle
A
merican University’s Center for the Study of the American Voter has dispensed with all the rah-rah about this being a huge election. You know, 10 million new registrants, a high water mark in a New America. Not so, it found:
Despite lofty predictions by some academics, pundits, and practitioners that voter turnout would reach levels not seen since the turn of the last century, the percentage of eligible citizens casting ballots in the 2008 presidential election stayed at virtually the same relatively high level as it reached in the polarized election of 2004.
… the percentage of Americans who cast ballots for president in this year’s presidential election will reach between 126.5 million and 128.5 million when all votes have been counted by early next month. If this prediction proves accurate, turnout would be at either exactly the same level as in 2004 or, at most, one percentage point higher (or between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent).
This shows a lot. Big, phony surges in registration don’t lead to big, real surges in turnout. Obama’s supporters were confident in his victory. For many, the urge to vote didn’t overcome the fact that It was cold and lousy and lines were long in many precincts.
Republican voting was down 1.3 percent, a sign either of surety Obama would win, dispondency over the McCain selection or worry over the Palin selection. Or cold, lousy weather and long lines.
Dem voting was up 2.6 percent, clearly attributable to Obama, especially if you look at states with high black populations, like NC and GA, which had record turn-outs.
But most significant is that the Dems increased their votes cast for the seventh straight election. For a GOP that needs to throw out everything and start anew, one team should be breaking down Dem registration and voter turn-out strategies. We don’t want to be - indeed can’t be - a new version of ACORN, but we can do better.
And we have to come up with a candidate that can move the masses.
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